报告题目：Analysis of transmissibility of COVID-19 and regional differences in disease control

报告时间：2020年4月25日（周六）上午9:10—9:50

报 告 人：王稳地 教授

报告地点：Zoom云会议（ID：932 1144 3567, 密码：nanxinda60）

报告摘要：Based on the data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan from December 10, 2019 to January 4, 2020, we use the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method to obtain the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreaks, which is 2.42, and the mean serial interval, which is 8.85 days. In order to characterize the regional differences in the transient transmission capacity of the disease, the daily report data of cities in Hubei province and the other provinces and cities in China were used to obtain an estimated daily basic reproduction number of each region in February 2020 on the basis of the statistical model. Further, we define a new epidemic control effectiveness formula based on the instantaneous reproduction number, and qualitatively  evaluates the influence of the control strategies adopted in each region on the real-time transmission capacity of COVID-19. The results indicate that the risk of recurrence of the domestic epidemic is still high due to the imported cases at this stage, and there are obvious regional differences in the spread of COVID-19, but the factors that cause the differences deserve further follow-up.

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 数学与统计学院

2020年4月23日

附：专家简介

王稳地，西南大学数学与统计学院教授，博士生导师, 中国生物数学学会副理事长，2005年获得重庆市名师称号, 2018年获得重庆市最美教师称号；从事生物数学的研究，在种群动力学和传染病动力学建模和分析方面发表论文100多篇，五次入选Elsevier数学类高引用论文作者，已经主持国家自然科学基金课题6项、教育部项目2项，目前担任两个国际刊物编委。